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能否重现佳绩?英超仅哈兰德曾在新年到来前赛季进球数破20(纪录能否重现?英超仅哈兰德曾在新年前单季进球20+)

时间:2026-01-01 来源:壹号娱乐

Generating a concise news update

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The user likely wants a brief news blurb that explains the current season's progress and fixtures before the New Year. The current date is December 29, 2025, but my last knowledge update was in October 2024, so I don’t have the latest stats. Since we're not allowed to fetch current data, I’ll have to provide a response based on historical context. I’ll keep it concise and avoid heavy formatting to meet the user’s needs.Analyzing goal-scoring potential

I’m looking into whether a player can reach 20 goals before the New Year. Generally, achieving around 0.85 goals per game is needed, with 19-20 matches played by that point. For instance, Haaland reached 20 goals in just 14 appearances during the 22/23 season, while Salah had 14 goals by Boxing Day in 2023-24. It seems remarkable since only Haaland has hit 20+ before January. To replicate this feat, a player needs to be fit, take penalties, and play in a strong team against weaker opponents.Analyzing goal-scoring potential before New Year

I could ask the user which player they’re referring to with a quick question like, "你指的是谁本季?" Also, I can provide some general analysis.

It's difficult to score over 20 goals before the New Year, as Haaland is the only player to have done this in the 2022-23 season. Historically, players like Suarez and Kane have gotten close. To reach this milestone, a player typically needs over 1.05 goals per 90 minutes and strong team support. If the user asks about a specific player, I can use a simple formula: target goals = current goals + estimated matches × goals per 90.

短答:可以,但极难。按我所知的历史数据,英超只有哈兰德在2022‑23赛季在新年到来前联赛进球破20;其他神锋多次逼近但未跨过这道线。

关键背景

  • 历史对比:苏亚雷斯(2013‑14)与希勒(1994‑95)新年前各19球,凯恩(2017)18球,萨拉赫(2017‑18)17球;真正≥20的纪录仅哈兰德完成。
  • 所需节奏:新年前通常踢18‑20轮,要“20+”需场均≥1.0球,且基本不缺席、常打满。
  • 现实门槛:冬季密集赛程带来轮换与伤病风险;强队虽创造多,但也更早锁定胜局导致前锋被提前换下。
  • 关键加成:点球主罚权、球队顶级创造力(xG前列)、稳定位球/反击输出、个人把握率与二次进攻到位率。

怎么预估某球员能否“新年前20+”

  • 简算:预计新年前进球 = 当前进球 + 预计剩余出场分钟/90 × G/90
  • 判据:若要达成,通常需要 G/90 ≥ 0.9–1.1 且预计出场分钟 ≥ 85% 可用时间,并有点球红利。

谁最可能复制

  • “高体量+点球”的中锋(如哈兰德这类门前高频射手)概率最高;边锋型得分手若承担点球也有机会,但对出场时间与转化率更敏感。

如果你在问某个具体球员本季能否冲击20+,给我他目前联赛进球、预计到新年前还能踢几场/大致每场上场分钟,我帮你代入评估并给出需要的“冲刺指标”。

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